Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 13.173646 15.361288 17.748321 20.539588 23.706938 27.182153 31.276331
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 9.611112 12.555589 16.086797 20.602091 26.187425 32.832509 41.295620
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.031510 10.166610 14.252334 19.893649 27.395580 36.933844 49.867128
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 5.336647 8.454252 12.828541 19.285529 28.418550 40.694189 58.219986
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.345030 7.464999 12.135427 19.437732 30.319923 45.639606 68.458087
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.502196 6.500300 11.270389 19.136639 31.430926 49.474624 77.382665
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.103603 6.156677 11.273068 20.096301 34.440958 56.223972 90.960411
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.674680 5.666164 10.940465 20.437306 36.468974 61.610057 102.863947
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.281400 5.156174 10.481996 20.478704 37.969506 66.243803 113.895752
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.957766 4.711515 10.061698 20.508369 39.411522 70.843762 125.141541
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.860072 4.708228 10.455649 22.032671 43.538733 80.090029 144.442107
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.722393 4.590523 10.604948 23.104277 46.938988 88.333939 162.588561
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.564613 4.407775 10.619083 23.960433 50.106936 96.549681 181.484079
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.334027 4.004715 10.116827 23.740520 51.266384 101.388878 195.017630
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.090538 3.509496 9.331204 22.832308 51.005468 103.663541 204.231577
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.900791 3.105221 8.678224 22.107287 51.009185 106.384468 214.373896
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.790582 2.894327 8.444287 22.263944 52.796552 112.530390 231.075878
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.671614 2.624356 8.016651 21.919378 53.494320 116.629442 244.224021
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.631602 2.591409 8.189632 22.997300 57.310638 127.014620 269.744956
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.567403 2.461113 8.081496 23.380048 59.633188 134.577788 290.274551
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.498984 2.296270 7.849932 23.426291 61.204277 140.722968 308.392962
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.439024 2.143611 7.625550 23.459533 62.740996 146.883163 326.862190
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.434201 2.201243 8.028730 25.172822 68.306197 161.703692 363.250863